As Mark Harris wrote for Grantland, this week's wave of Oscar nomination warm-up acts -- The Gotham Awards, New York Movie Critics Circle and National Board of Overview -- don't quantity to a hill of beans.
They are not "precursors" (a phrase I might wish to see banished from discussions) and their value is idiosyncratic somewhat than predictive. No movie could be thought of to be on an Oscar observe because it won one thing this week, or labeled as "in bother" because it didn't.
Indeed, Harris is right, particularly with The Display screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes set to announce nominees next week. Yet as the good Lt. Frank Drebin as soon as mentioned, that is our hill. And these are our beans.
Ahead, four observations from the last week in Oscar.
Ryan Coogler may very well be this 12 months's Benh Zeitlin
Coogler, the author-director of beloved Sundance Movie Festival debut "Fruitvale Station," received Breakthrough Director from The Gotham Awards, Best First Movie from The brand new York Film Critics Circle and Greatest Directorial Debut from The National Board of Evaluate. If that illustrious run of reward looks familiar, it is as a result of Zeitlin took dwelling comparable honors final yr for "Beasts of the Southern Wild," including the same awards from The Gotham Awards and NBR. In the end, Zeitlin was a surprise nominee for Best Director at the Academy Awards, besting big-name filmmakers comparable
custom batman t-shirt to Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow and Quentin Tarantino for a slot in the ultimate 5. Like final yr, Best Director is tight -- Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron are presumed locks, with David O. Russell, Alexander Payne, John Lee Hancock, Martin Scorsese, Paul Greengrass and Joel and Ethan Coen in a scrum for the ultimate three nods -- but don't be shocked if Coogler makes the minimize over many of those bigger names.
Will Forte might be going to get an Oscar nomination
If one subscribes to the notion that Alexander Payne's "Nebraska" is going to be an enormous Oscar contender in multiple categories, then it makes sense that may Forte may wind up as an unlikely Greatest Supporting Actor nominee. (He received the award from The Nationwide Board of Assessment on Wednesday.) In the previous "SNL" star's favor: He's appearing reverse two surefire nominees, Bruce Dern and June Squibb, and they've achieved nothing but praise him on the circuit. Extra grist for the mill: Forte has a great story -- from "MacGruber" to Oscar! -- very similar to Jonah Hill had during his "Moneyball" run. The good money is on Jared Leto, Michael Fassbender, Tom Hanks and Hill making up eighty % of the supporting actor Oscar category, however that final spot is up for grabs. Enter Forte, whose boat ought to rise with the tide of "Nebraska" support.
Octavia Spencer would possibly get one too
Octavia Spencer is a great actress and past Oscar winner who is excellent in "Fruitvale Station," however does she actually deserve a nod for Finest Supporting Actress over her co-star, Melonie Diaz? Maybe not, however that in all probability doesn't matter. Spencer won Best Supporting Actress from The National Board of Assessment, and as Best Supporting Actress coalesces into a race between Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Lawrence, Lupita Nyong'o and June Squibb, the fifth slot would possibly wind up in Spencer's arms. This is The Wire's Joe Reid doing an important job of explaining why: "There is a phenomenon where Oscar winners (especially those who got here from out of nowhere) get a comply with-up nomination shortly thereafter, for a efficiency that is maybe not as flashy/impressive/memorable, nevertheless it type of backs up the win as not a fluke. [...] Anyway, that's what this 'Fruitvale' nod for Octavia seems like."
Emma Thompson is your future Greatest Actress winner?
Apologies to the great Cate Blanchett, however Thompson -- who stomps by "Saving Mr. Banks" with a devilish delight -- is turning right into a freight train of momentum, the likes of which hasn't been seen since ... well, since Jennifer Lawrence throughout last yr's awards season. Thompson is crushing it on the campaign path, all whereas "Saving Mr. Banks" continues to play very well with voters. Blanchett's performance is one for the ages -- and she received Greatest Actress from The brand new York Movie Critics Circle -- however there's an opportunity she peaked too early, if only due to the fact that "Blue Jasmine" got here out in July. Which may as nicely be 5 years ago in awards time.
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